Silver: A Fundamental Perspective

by Christopher Green
Economics
Faculty advisor: Dr. Stan Ullerich

This research focuses on an economic analysis of the Silver market, a commodity that has seen more than a 100% rise in its price since the summer of 2010. The key parts, such as the macroeconomic and political environments in the commodities markets are analyzed. Instead of using technical analysis, which is trying to predict future prices from previous prices/price changes or patterns, I am gathering fundamental data, meaning theoretically sound variables such as the price of substitute products, market supply, market demand, number of market fund shares, and others to develop a regression model for predicting the price of the commodity silver per ounce in the future. This way, I will directly apply what I have learned in econometrics and my other core economics courses to build my own interactive model. I will be able to check for problems associated with making these models and fix them to the best of my ability to come up with the most predictive model that I can.